A few of the reasons I wanted to set out watching games and give a rating on a game by game basis, was that nothing like that was being presented, and any other type of WAR, GAR, player cards available had a large discrepancy between excellent, very good, good, average and below average.
If you have a player at 92 percentile of other players compared to a player at 34, it gives the perception that the player at 34 is well below average. The same holds for WAR and GAR when you have players well above the positive line and players below. It gives the perception that all players below zero are replacement level at best.
Replacement level is a term that has been bandied about for a few years now, but in recent years it has been probably used a little too much for players that are slightly above average in the NHL. I'd like to get a much more accurate picture of what is replacement level.
The one aspect that has surprised me in doing this project, is how close NHL players are to each other in terms of overall play on a game-by-game basis. Players will have their peaks and valleys, but it is rare for players to average over 7.0 overall and most players rate above 6.4. The replacement level in my opinion is right around 6.25.
Originally I planned to have a base or raw rating and then watch the games to add or deduct from those ratings based on actual events. To include all 32 teams, I decided that the base ratings would be sufficient to give a comparative number for each team. Better teams are going to have better ratings for each player because the core of the ratings is based on production at the end of the day. If a team ices players that are a weak link, they will be exposed after about 10 games.
Here is an example of the Edmonton Oilers after 30 games this season:
Players that are near or below the replacement level that have played 10 games are Colton Sceviour, Slater Koekkoek, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan Mcleod, Devin Shore, Derek Ryan, Brendan Perlini, Kyle Turris and Tyler Benson. The Oilers have more players under 6.25 than most other teams in the NHL and this lack of depth hurts them as they are also the only NHL team with two players above 7.0.
The goal of the website is to build from the base ratings for each NHL team and give an accurate rating of each player for a game, a season or a career.